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CX2SA > SWPC 07.04.16 23:27l 62 Lines 2249 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41885-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA
Sent: 160407/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41885 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41885-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1113Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 07/0909Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
07/1800Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
07/1800Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (09 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (10
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 092
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 092/090/095
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 013/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 55/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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