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CX2SA > SWPC 09.04.16 23:24l 62 Lines 2161 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41974-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160409/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41974 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41974-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1613Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 09/1553Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/1612Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 106
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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