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CX2SA > SWPC 11.04.16 23:26l 62 Lines 2227 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42080-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160411/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42080 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42080-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/2027Z from Region 2529 (N09E28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr,
13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 10/2101Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 11/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/1426Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Apr) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 117
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 012/015-018/030-018/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 10/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/20/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/75/75
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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