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CX2SA > SWPC 14.04.16 00:00l 62 Lines 2255 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42167-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160413/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42167 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42167-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Apr,
15 Apr, 16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 13/0614Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 13/0014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 13/0007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 108
Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 13 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 024/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 018/030-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 30/10/05
Major-severe storm 20/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 75/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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