| |
CX2SA > SWPC 21.04.16 23:29l 61 Lines 2222 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42531-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<CX2SA
Sent: 160421/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42531 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42531-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Apr, 23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 469 km/s at 21/0853Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
21/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/0645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (23 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 077
Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 075/080/080
90 Day Mean 21 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 006/005-012/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/35
Minor Storm 05/30/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/65/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
