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CX2SA > SWPC 27.04.16 23:27l 62 Lines 2246 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42808-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160427/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42808 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42808-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr,
29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 27/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/0211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/0350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 349 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (29 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (30 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 093
Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 095/093/093
90 Day Mean 27 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 009/008-012/014-018/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/35
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/60/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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