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CX2SA > SWPC 02.05.16 23:29l 63 Lines 2329 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42987-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160502/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42987 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42987-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/0842Z from Region 2540 (N22E24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (03 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 02/1830Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 02/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 02/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).
III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 090
Predicted 03 May-05 May 095/105/110
90 Day Mean 02 May 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 021/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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