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CX2SA > SWPC 07.05.16 23:29l 63 Lines 2310 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43142-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160507/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:43142 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:43142-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1713Z from Region 2541 (N04E00). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May,
09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 07/0007Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 06/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/2241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 May) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (09 May, 10 May).
III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 088
Predicted 08 May-10 May 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 07 May 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 013/018-018/025-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor Storm 10/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/65/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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