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CX2SA > SWPC 08.05.16 23:29l 61 Lines 2225 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43202-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160508/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:43202 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:43202-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May,
10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total
IMF reached 18 nT at 08/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -12 nT at 08/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10
May) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 May).
III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 084
Predicted 09 May-11 May 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 08 May 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 039/065
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 022/032-018/025-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 30/30/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/65/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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