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CX2SA > SWPC 17.09.14 23:25l 63 Lines 2278 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10558-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IR2UBX<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DB0ANF<CX2SA
Sent: 140917/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:10558 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:10558-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
17/1948Z from Region 2158 (N15W93). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (18 Sep) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
416 km/s at 16/2120Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2058Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2240Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 30/20/20
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 125
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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