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CX2SA > SWPC 15.05.16 23:31l 66 Lines 2524 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43504-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160515/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:43504 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:43504-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0409Z from Region 2543 (S05W80). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May,
17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 15/1714Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 14/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 May).
III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 60/30/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 108
Predicted 16 May-18 May 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 15 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 017/023-011/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/20
Minor Storm 25/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/55/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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