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CX2SA > SWPC 18.09.14 23:25l 62 Lines 2221 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10588-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IR2UBX<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DB0ANF<CX2SA
Sent: 140918/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:10588 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:10588-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/0841Z from Region 2169 (N05E53). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
424 km/s at 17/2242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/2316Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1828Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 120
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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