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CX2SA > SWPC 31.05.16 23:33l 61 Lines 2201 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 44564-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 160531/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:44564 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:44564-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 30/2102Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/1300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1905 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Jun, 03
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (02 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 087
Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 31 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 006/006-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/15/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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