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CX2SA > SWPC 05.06.16 23:34l 62 Lines 2246 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 45252-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160605/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:45252 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:45252-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 05/2004Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 05/1418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 05/1241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 917 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (07 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (08
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 079
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 078/078/082
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 018/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 016/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 50/25/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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