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CX2SA > SWPC 12.06.16 23:36l 63 Lines 2295 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 45892-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160612/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:45892 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:45892-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/2228Z from Region 2552 (N15W75). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun,
14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 11/2124Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 12/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
12/1234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 448 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Jun, 15
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (14 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 094
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 092/092/092
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 007/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/15/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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