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CX2SA > SWPC 21.09.14 23:41l 62 Lines 2286 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10701-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 140921/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:10701 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:10701-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/1153Z from Region 2166 (N11W55). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
637 km/s at 21/0344Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/0801Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/0324Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 124
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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