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CX2SA > SWPC 15.06.16 23:36l 62 Lines 2251 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 46095-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160615/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:46095 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:46095-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 772 km/s at 15/0410Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 14/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 14/2145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 215 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 087
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/35/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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