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CX2SA > SWPC 20.06.16 23:37l 60 Lines 2171 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 46439-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160620/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:46439 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:46439-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jun,
22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
averaged near 500 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0553Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1946Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (23 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 084
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 005/005-005/005-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/10/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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