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CX2SA > SWPC 22.09.14 23:26l 63 Lines 2307 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10724-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IR2UBX<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DB0ANF<CX2SA
Sent: 140922/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:10724 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:10724-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep,
25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
504 km/s at 22/0035Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1508Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1559Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
22/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 130
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/010-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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