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CX2SA > SWPC 07.07.16 23:25l 62 Lines 2239 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48075-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160707/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48075 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48075-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/0756Z from Region 2561 (S16W45). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 07/1751Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 07/1852Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 083
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 084/085/086
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 013/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/15
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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