| |
CX2SA > SWPC 13.07.16 23:06l 61 Lines 2211 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48592-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160713/2149Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48592 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48592-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 13 2120 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul,
15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 12/2155Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/2357Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4515 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 097
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 094/094/092
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 014/ NA-007/ NA-007/ NA
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
