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CX2SA > SWPC 15.07.16 00:26l 61 Lines 2232 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48671-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160714/2319Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48671 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48671-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 14 2255 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 14/1955Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/0732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4181 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul). Quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 095
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 094/091/091
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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