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CX2SA > SWPC 19.07.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2148 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 49062-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160719/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:49062 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:49062-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1153Z from Region 2565 (N06W35). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul,
22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 19/1642Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7070 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21
Jul, 22 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 101
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 010/012-013/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 35/30/35
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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