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CX2SA > SWPC 23.07.16 23:23l 66 Lines 2513 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 49391-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160723/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:49391 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:49391-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
23/0516Z from Region 2567 (N05W80). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (24 Jul) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on day two (25 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on day three (26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 22/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0610Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (25 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Jul).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 40/30/01
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 10/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 086
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 085/080/075
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 007/008-006/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/10/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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