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CX2SA > SWPC 25.07.16 23:24l 64 Lines 2384 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 49560-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160725/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:49560 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:49560-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0909Z from Region 2567 (N05W0*). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (26 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0204Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 24/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 622 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27
Jul, 28 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 074
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 010/015-010/012-011/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/45/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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