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CX2SA > SWPC 02.08.16 23:25l 62 Lines 2282 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50162-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160802/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50162 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50162-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (03 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 02/1715Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 02/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
02/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 906 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 075
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 015/020-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/35/35
Major-severe storm 55/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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