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CX2SA > SWPC 06.08.16 23:26l 61 Lines 2220 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50433-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160806/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50433 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50433-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 732 km/s at 05/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16205 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09
Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 083
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/010-015/020-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/20
Minor Storm 05/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/55/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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