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CX2SA > SWPC 08.08.16 23:26l 63 Lines 2305 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50574-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160808/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50574 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50574-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/2232Z from Region 2571 (N12W19). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Aug,
10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 08/1935Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 08/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11010 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 096
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 011/012-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 35/35/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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