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CX2SA > SWPC 19.08.16 23:29l 61 Lines 2220 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 51476-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160819/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:51476 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:51476-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 18/2316Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 230 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 081
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 080/082/082
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 013/015-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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