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CX2SA > SWPC 25.08.16 23:30l 61 Lines 2207 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 51863-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160825/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:51863 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:51863-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 25/0737Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1295 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Aug, 28
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (27 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 079
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 008/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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