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CX2SA > SWPC 01.09.16 23:31l 60 Lines 2132 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 52439-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160901/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:52439 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:52439-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep,
03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 01/1855Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 01/0609Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 095
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 011/015-009/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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