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CX2SA > SWPC 02.09.16 23:31l 61 Lines 2182 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 52510-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160902/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:52510 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:52510-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 02 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 738 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 01/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 01/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 11398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04
Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 095
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 029/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 026/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 009/012-009/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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