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CX2SA > SWPC 05.09.16 23:32l 61 Lines 2253 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 52768-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160905/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:52768 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:52768-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 748 km/s at 04/2346Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 05/1847Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 05/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 56842 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 094
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 020/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 011/012-010/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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