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CX2SA > SWPC 12.09.16 23:33l 61 Lines 2202 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 53275-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160912/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:53275 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:53275-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep,
14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 12/0035Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 12/0923Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6738 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Sep, 14 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 087
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 082/082/080
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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