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CX2SA > SWPC 17.09.16 23:34l 60 Lines 2104 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 53614-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160917/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:53614 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:53614-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 344 km/s at 17/0828Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
17/0824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/2331Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (19 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 080
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 006/005-014/018-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/40
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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