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CX2SA > SWPC 27.09.16 23:22l 63 Lines 2284 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 54266-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160927/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:54266 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:54266-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0748Z from Region 2597 (S14W52). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep,
29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 27/2023Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 27/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6692 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (28
Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 086
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 028/040-028/044-025/038
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/40/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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