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CX2SA > SWPC 27.07.14 23:24l 62 Lines 2264 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8639-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DB0ANF<CX2SA
Sent: 140727/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:8639 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8639-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/0551Z from Region 2125 (S13E57). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jul,
29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 400 km/s at
26/2258Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2054Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/2348Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 121
Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 27 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 009/012-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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