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CX2SA > SWPC 30.09.16 23:20l 62 Lines 2290 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 54476-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160930/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:54476 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:54476-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 849 km/s at 29/2144Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 30/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 30/1608Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 74718 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 081
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 022/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 024/030-016/021-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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