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CX2SA > SWPC 02.10.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2220 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 54628-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161002/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:54628 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:54628-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 01/2129Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 02/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 02/1836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 53511 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 082
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 010/012-011/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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