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CX2SA > SWPC 04.10.16 23:23l 61 Lines 2202 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 54813-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161004/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:54813 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:54813-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 04/1551Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 04/1155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 04/0811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 16465 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 093
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 020/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 010/012-007/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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