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CX2SA > SWPC 06.10.16 23:24l 61 Lines 2166 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55010-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161006/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:55010 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:55010-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct,
08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 05/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 102
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 102/102/105
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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