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CX2SA > SWPC 14.10.16 23:23l 62 Lines 2254 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55694-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161014/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:55694 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:55694-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1449Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct,
16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 13/2227Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 13/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 13/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1931 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (15
Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 093
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 030/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/015-013/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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