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CX2SA > SWPC 17.10.16 23:23l 62 Lines 2294 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55913-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161017/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:55913 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:55913-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
17/0038Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Oct,
19 Oct, 20 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached an average peak of ~775 km/s. Total IMF reached 6 nT
at 16/2311Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 19133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 076
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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