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CX2SA > SWPC 18.10.16 23:24l 59 Lines 2104 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55978-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161018/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:55978 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:55978-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 802 km/s at 17/2214Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 077
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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