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CX2SA > SWPC 24.10.16 23:25l 61 Lines 2226 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 56396-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161024/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:56396 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:56396-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 24/0159Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/1341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 974 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26
Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 075
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/074/073
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 028/040-025/040-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/40
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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