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CX2SA > SWPC 05.11.16 23:27l 61 Lines 2191 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57329-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161105/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57329 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57329-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 04/2348Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
04/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
05/0447Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3752 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 077
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 078/078/075
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 006/005-005/005-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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