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CX2SA > SWPC 09.11.16 23:28l 62 Lines 2253 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57614-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161109/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57614 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57614-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 09/1944Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 09/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/1833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 552 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (11 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (12 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 080
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 009/008-011/014-020/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/35
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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