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CX2SA > SWPC 10.11.16 23:28l 61 Lines 2226 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57693-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161110/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57693 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57693-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 10/1823Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 10/1639Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
10/1402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1032 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 080
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 021/080-018/080-015/080
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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