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CX2SA > SWPC 11.11.16 23:28l 62 Lines 2242 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57760-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161111/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57760 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57760-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (12 Nov) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/1435Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 10/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 10/2200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled
to active levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 078
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 075/072/072
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 018/020-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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