| |
CX2SA > SWPC 12.11.16 23:22l 61 Lines 2219 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57844-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161112/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57844 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57844-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 12/1817Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 12/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
12/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 078
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 082/080/078
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 015/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/082-010/080-007/078
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
